How do I know if people will pay for my app idea?

Ask friends, colleagues or potential customers whether they'd pay for your idea and most of them will say yes. They mean it kindly, and it tells you very little. Saying yes costs them nothing. Paying costs them something, which is exactly why it's worth asking for.

Some evidence is stronger than others

It helps to think about evidence in terms of what it costs the other person:

1. Saying they'd use it. Weak, because it's free to say.
2. Trying it on a real task. Stronger. They've given you time and shown you how it fits their work.
3. Paying, or committing to pay. They've accepted your promise and your price.
4. Coming back when the need comes round again, and paying again. This is what shows your product has a real place in their work.

Notice that a first payment isn't the top. It's a meaningful commitment, but whether they get the outcome you promised and keep paying is still to be found out.

Put a price in early

You don't need finished software to ask for money. You can sell the outcome and deliver it by hand at first, or alongside a rough version you're still improving. It helps to have the words ready:

It's [£49 a month]. I'm only taking on [three] [customers] to start with, and I'll [set it up and run it with you myself] while the software is being built. Would you like to be one of them?

If they're keen but not ready to pay, ask for a commitment:

• A pre-order: they pay now for something you'll deliver by a set date, with a refund if you don't.
• A letter of intent: a short signed note saying they'll buy at a stated price once it's ready. For selling to businesses, this is common and easy to ask for.

The price is part of the question

A yes at £5 a month and a yes at £500 a month are different businesses. So put a real price in front of people, even if it's a guess. A one-page website with your promise, a price and a "Book a call" button, sent to people who fit your customer, shows you who acts on it at that price.

If people pay without blinking, your price is probably too low, which is a good problem to have. If nobody will pay at a price you could live on, that's worth knowing early.

What doesn't tell you much

• Surveys asking what people would pay. People are bad at predicting their own behaviour.
• Waitlist sign-ups on their own. They show interest, which is useful, but they cost nothing to give.
• Enthusiasm from friends and family. They want you to succeed, so they're the least reliable judges.

When the answer isn't clear

It often isn't. One person pays, two say "maybe next quarter", another loves it but says the budget sits with someone else. Before deciding what it means, look at who did what. Are the people who paid different from the ones who didn't, in size, role or situation? Was the "maybe" about the price, the timing or the person you were talking to? The answer usually points to the next thing to find out, and it's normal to come back to the same question more than once.

If nobody will commit, even with the risk taken away, go back to your guesses. Maybe it's the wrong customer, the problem isn't costly enough, or the promise doesn't land. There's more on working through this in how to test an app idea.